Historic El Niño able to supercharge extreme weather looks increasingly likely – researchers

Why This Matters

Key context: <p>Models show overwhelming chance that this year’s El Niño to rank among largest going back to 1950</p><p>El Niño is strengthening and the <a href="https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml">risks of a historic event</a> with the power to supercharge extreme weather around the world are rising, according to the latest analysis from the US National Weather Service.</p><p>Models show there is now an 81% chance that a very strong El Niño “that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the <a href="https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/">historical record going back to 1950</a>” will develop before the end of this year, forecasters said in an advisory released Thursday. There is almost near certainty – a 97% probability – that the conditions will persist through spring 2027.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/jul/09/el-nino-risks-extreme-weather">Continue reading...</a> This development from The Guardian highlights ongoing changes in the sector.