Reader Q&A: After Lula’s sensational victory in Brazil’s presidential election, the Guardian’s Latin America correspondent answers your questions

Why This Matters

Key context: <p>Having lost the first round of Brazil’s presidential election to far right rival Flávio Bolsonaro, incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva spectacularly triumphed in the second. What comes next for Brazil? The Guardian’s Tom Phillips is answering your questions now.</p><p><strong>Ask a question: log in or sign up </strong><a href="https://profile.theguardian.com/signin"><strong>here</strong></a><strong> to comment, or email conversations@theguardian.com</strong></p><p><strong>Jeremy Hurley asks: </strong>Why did the Brazil stock market tank after the election result, and will it recover?</p><p><strong>Tom: </strong>Basically, because the markets had been convinced that Flávio Bolsonaro was going to win and that after taking power he would implement a “chainsaw” style austerity programme inspired by Javier Milei’s government in Argentina, deal with Brazil’s budget deficit, and bring down interest rates. Lula’s victory came as a shock to investors who believe his fourth presidency will see increased and unsustainable public spending.</p><p>Yes, I’m sure things will stabilise at some point soon after the initial panic – during Lula’s previous administrations investors made a lot of money, particularly during his first two terms. There is talk of Lula naming his vice-president, the centre-right politician Geraldo Alckmin, as finance minister in order to calm markets down. Another possible name Rafael Fonteles, a mathematician who is the governor of Piauí and used to run that state’s finances.</p><p><strong>Tom: </strong>That’s a really good question and, as someone who lives in Rio de Janeiro, it is one that has been on my mind a lot. The far right has been very good at blaming “soft” left wing policies and federal government incompetence for the failure to control armed violence. It was a huge part of the campaign against Lula in the run up to this election.</p><p>But public security is a state matter and Rio state has largely been governed by the right for years now. Their hard-line, shoot first ask questions later approach has not worked - in fact many believe it has made the violence even worse and led to massacres such as the one I covered in the Complexo da Penha almost exactly one year ago. It must be said that similar tactics have been used in Bahia state, which has a huge problem with violence and is governed by the Worker’s party (PT). My colleague Tiago Rogero has <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/14/bahia-brazil-police-killings-rate">written about this</a>.</p> <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/oct/27/brazil-election-reader-questions-lula-bolsonaro">Continue reading...</a> This development from The Guardian highlights ongoing changes in the sector.